Headline regional ambitions
Greenhouse gases
Reducing CO2 emissions to 60 per cent below 1990 levels by 2031 would put the region at the forefront of tackling climate change and in a prime position to exploit the global commercial opportunities of the $548 billion environmental goods and services market.
With its long coastline, low-lying geography and vulnerability to coastal flooding, the East of England is the UK region most at risk from the effects of climate change. The twin challenges of adaptation to and mitigation of these effects, and the academic and commercial expertise within the region, provide a strong rationale for bold action to put the region at the forefront of global regions.
The draft Climate Change Bill proposes binding UK targets of at least a 60 per cent reduction of CO2 emissions below a 1990 baseline by 2050, with an interim target of between 26 and 32 per cent by 2020.xvii The Climate Change Bill also seeks to set five-year carbon budgets, recognising that it is not just a 2020 or 2050 end point that is important, but the cumulative level of emissions and the need to live within carbon budgets in getting there.xviii Yet there is increasing evidence that to limit global warming, average temperatures need to remain within a 'safe level' of 2ºC above pre-industrial levels. This may require industrial economies to make near to an 80 per cent cut by 2050.xix
Given the significance of climate change as an environmental challenge, the RES sets the ambition for a 60 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2031 (see Figure 11). This target is defined on an end-user basis.xx This would put the region on a trajectory to reach 80 per cent by 2050.xxi Converting leadership in tackling climate change into commercial leadership is a huge opportunity for the region, which is supported by each of the RES goals. In 2005, the UK market for environmental goods and services was around £25 billion; the global market was worth $548 billion and is expected to grow by 45 per cent by 2015.xxii
Achieving the CO2 emissions target is consistent with the other regional ambitions around economic performance if bold policies are in place to de-couple economic growth from resource-use and greenhouse gas emissions. The REEIO environmental modelling project undertaken to support the RES investigated the impact on emissions of achieving the RES-RSS scenario of GVA and employment growth to 2031. Although existing policies would see the continued de-carbonisation of electricity and most sectors of the economy achieving strong reductions in the energy intensity of their production, they will be insufficient to achieve the objective for CO2. New policies are needed to achieve major carbon savings for households, the transport, manufacturing, services and electricity generation sectors, whilst there is also a need to increase the scope or effectiveness of current policies.
The RES also recognises the wider range of greenhouse gas emissions such as N2O, methane and hydrofluorocarbons. Ongoing work with expert partners will establish baselines and policy options. Informed by the emerging regional climate change action plan, the Spatial Economy section of the RES addresses adaptation.
- xvii. Draft Climate Change Bill, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (2007).
- xviii. Akin to a financial budget, a 'Carbon Budget' refers to the aggregated quantity of CO2 emissions. The draft Climate Change Bill proposes that carbon budget periods be set at least three periods (ie for 15 years) ahead. This approach provides for both certainty and flexibility in the system: emissions can vary between years provided the total over a five year period does not exceed the budget.
- xix. This is consistent with maintaining atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at or below 450ppmv, which recent IPCC evidence suggests would give us a reasonable chance (30 per cent) of not exceeding the 2ºC stabilisation level. The government is currently reviewing the national target of a 60 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050, and whether this should in fact be closer to 80 per cent by 2050, in line with the trajectory that underpins the RES headline target
- xx. That is, the emissions associated with the electricity consumed in the region are attributed to the region and not the emissions associated with the electricity generated in the region. The indicator also includes emissions from both domestic and international aviation. For reasons of attribution, the treatment of aviation in the target is limited to emissions from take-offs and landings and an imputed share of domestic cruise. See Resource-use and CO2 Emissions Modelling Cambridge Econometrics (April 2008) for a detailed definition.
- xxi. Memorandum submitted by the RSPB to the EFRA Select Committee on the Draft Climate Change Bill (2007).
- xxii. Environmental Goods and Services Core Script, Environmental Industries Sector Knowledge Team (BERR).
- xxiii. The 2.25 per cent pa rate of decline projected is consistent with delivery of a 60 per cent reduction in emissions from their estimated 1990 level by 2031. At the present time, estimates of regional CO2 emissions for 1990 are unavailable on a consistent basis with the data used in the REEIO model. However, these data will be forthcoming through SCPnet. To illustrate the sensitivity of the future rate of declines necessary to achieve the 60 per cent reduction target, if emissions in 2005 were at the same level as in 1990, then the target reduction by 2031 would require emissions to be cut by an average of 3.5 per cent pa from 2005.
